When Will Covid- 19 End in The World

Fresh Covid wave fears persist throughout the world, including in India, as Covid infections are once again growing in a number of nations, particularly in China, which recorded over 250 million cases in only 20 days in December. Here, most of us have got this question in our mind

Will Covid-19 end in 2023-24 or will it get worse?

According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 18.3% of Covid-19 cases in the US are caused by the Omicron subvariant XBB, whereas the BF.7 variant of the Omicron virus is a matter for worry in China and India (CDC). This is an increase of 11.2% as incidences of the XBB variant rise in Singapore.

In the US, new instances of the Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 accounted for almost 70% of all cases.

According to research from Johns Hopkins University, there have been over 100 million verified instances of Covid in the US since the pandemic began almost three years ago, and more than 1 million people have died as a result.

With 206,943 new cases reported, Japan is currently experiencing the eighth wave of the epidemic. Saturday saw a three-month peak in new coronavirus-related mortality while South Korea’s new Covid cases stayed below 70,000 for the second straight day.

The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) expressed hope that Covid-19 will no longer be a global health emergency by the end of the next year.

According to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO Covid-19 Emergency Committee will consider the requirements for announcing the end of the Covid-19 emergency next month.

He added that while the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the cause of the Covid-19 pandemic, will not go away, “we’re confident that at some point next year, we will be able to claim that Covid-19 is no longer a global health emergency.”

Indian Context

According to Kirti Sabnis, an infectious disease specialist at Fortis Hospital in Kalyan, Mumbai, when a pandemic turns endemic, it indicates that the illness is widespread and present in enough people for outbreaks to be contained.

“Additionally, the illnesses may still have an impact on weak members of the community. An endemic may not have significant outbreaks, but this also indicates that it won’t be entirely eliminated “She spoke.

Because Covid-19 is a respiratory virus that mutates frequently, much like other Influenza viruses, experts in health stated it is more difficult to forecast whether it would become endemic in 2023.

“New strains of the virus could emerge if numerous mutations alter the protein structure of the virus or affect its capacity to bind to cells. Covid can become endemic, though, if the virus’s current defences are strong enough to stop serious illness or slow transmission, according to Sabnis.

However, it is unlikely that we will be able to entirely eradicate Covid-19. It is unclear when or if it will become endemic.

According to experts, there could occasionally be outbreaks, especially during flu season or if new mutations appear, as is currently the case in China.

“Its potential to become endemic will also be influenced by the virus’s propagation in India, the level of immunity obtained via prior immunisation, and community transmission. In the following two to three months, it does not appear likely that there will be any substantial new outbreaks or that the virus will spread widely “said Sabnis.

The battle against Covid-19 is still going on in India, according to the most recent statistics released by the Union Health Ministry, which show the development of almost 6,200 new cases in just 24 hours. Is India’s experience with COVID-19 finally coming to an end?

Dr. Namita Jaggi warns that Covid-19 is almost over, but vigilance should still be exercised. Normal pandemic duration is between two and two and a half years. Coronavirus has been around for two years now. Undoubtedly, the end is close at hand, but before we get there, we must maintain the level of caution we’ve shown throughout the journey and continue taking precautions. This is especially important when travelling through hospitals and large crowds; we must continue wearing masks, observe social and physical distance, and keep our hands clean. Vaccination is becoming more widespread now, but because the varieties are also increasing, it is vital to continue taking precautions. It is a very healthy habit to wear masks, especially in airports and enclosed areas like aeroplanes where people congregate for extended periods of time. Masks also prevent other respiratory ailments like influenza. Even though the infection will be minimal, people with comorbid conditions may experience complications if they contract it. Therefore, as prevention is preferable to treatment, work to avoid becoming ill.

Where did the Covid-19 Come from?

Although the coronavirus’s origins remain a mystery, two recent investigations have identified the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China, as the most likely site of human COVID-19 transmission.

The Wuhan Institute of Virology, a biotech facility situated in the city where the virus was initially discovered, has been implicated in one or more other scenarios, including a lab leak.

In 2021, China did permit a few scientists from the World Health Organization to travel to Wuhan, but they were not given full access to all of the material that might have been crucial.

To stop further outbreaks, it’s critical to pinpoint the source of COVID-19.

Infectious diseases expert Professor Robert Booy claimed that although officials had “learned an incredible amount” about containing a pandemic, there were obviously areas that needed more attention.

What does WHO Say?

The World Health Organization (WHO) is optimistic about the situation after naming Covid-19 an international emergency and pandemic with the feared coronavirus more than two years ago. We are not there yet, said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in a recent, widely circulated statement. But the end is near,” he added, mentioning how “Run harder now to ensure we cross the finish line and get paid for all our hard work.”

The World Health Organization (WHO) identified COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) during the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee’s 12th meeting on July 12. Four explanations were given:

1.A recent spike in cases (BA.4/BA.5 was raging over the world at the time of the summit)

2.SARS-CoV-2 virus is still evolving significantly.

3.When compared to local transmission levels or health system capacities, the use of public health and health planning strategies to reduce disease burden and transmission is out of proportion.

4.Inadequacies in community involvement and risk communication that affect the need to establish or modify public health and social measures

When will the pandemic end?

We still don’t know what stage of the pandemic we are in, partially because, while illness outbreaks and their causes are thoroughly researched, the same cannot be said for how, if at all, they end.

Even during the omicron surges, nations like the United States and the United Kingdom have essentially reverted to regular living, with no mask mandates, limitations lifted, and no longer offering free COVID-19 testing.

This is not the first pandemic of the century; the most recent was the H1N1 outbreak, which started in the spring of 2009 and was proclaimed to be over by the end of August 2010.

A pandemic’s end date is determined by factors other than the disease’s epidemiology, according to studies.

“The era following the pandemic is now beginning. According to Margaret Chan, the director of the WHO at the time, “the new H1N1 virus has mostly run its course.

However, the illness was still present, and new instances were continually popping up. The international health organisation highlighted that the seasonal spread and circulation of the H1N1 virus will continue.

Professor Robert Booy, an expert in infectious illnesses, thinks that the fact that the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic and the 1890 Russian flu both lasted for several years gives reason for optimism regarding the 2019 pandemic that originated in Wuhan, China.

The average pandemic lasts three years, and we’ve had three, Booy said to 9news.com.au, speculating on how the virus would affect us in 2023.

There are indications that the COVID-19 epidemic, which has killed 6.6 million people worldwide, is finally coming to an end.

Future Course of Action

The battle against Covid-19 is still going on in India, according to the most recent statistics released by the Union Health Ministry, which show the development of almost 6,200 new cases in just 24 hours. Is India’s experience with COVID-19 finally coming to an end?

Dr. Namita Jaggi warns that Covid-19 is almost over, but vigilance should still be exercised. Normal pandemic duration is between two and two and a half years. Coronavirus has been around for two years now. Undoubtedly, the end is close at hand, but before we get there, we must maintain the level of caution we’ve shown throughout the journey and continue taking precautions. This is especially important when travelling through hospitals and large crowds; we must continue wearing masks, observe social and physical distance, and keep our hands clean. Vaccination is becoming more widespread now, but because the varieties are also increasing, it is vital to continue taking precautions.

It is a very healthy habit to wear masks, especially in airports and enclosed areas like aeroplanes where people congregate for extended periods of time. Masks also prevent other respiratory ailments like influenza. Even though the infection will be minimal, people with comorbid conditions may experience complications if they contract it. Therefore, as prevention is preferable to treatment, work to avoid becoming ill.

According to Dr. Behram Pardiwala, Director of Internal Medicines at Wockhardt Hospital in Mumbai Central, “there is herd immunity for Covid-19 to some extent.” “The Covid-19 epidemic has now expanded throughout the community and has partially achieved herd immunity as a result of becoming endemic. My own belief is that we will need to receive a Covid-19 immunisation annually, similar to how we receive an annual influenza injection. To stop Covid-19 from spreading, we will still need to take the necessary precautions, especially in busy regions and sites. One must also be on the lookout for mutations and the emergence of new strains, which is why the vaccination will also need to change. In order to do this, it is also essential that members of the general public are aware of the risks and implications of their actions.

Dr. Dipu TS claims that COVID-19 is no longer a disease that spreads quickly. According to prior pandemics, the current pandemic will start to pose a serious threat in two to three years. Due to the opening of new schools, restaurants, and public spaces, we can observe in our daily lives that we have practically returned to the pre-pandemic era. Presently, namesake restrictions apply to the vast majority of nations. It’s no longer a disease that spreads quickly across countries, despite the fact that new Covid-19 case figures continue to give us the impression that it’s far from over.

The Omicron version, which is the most contagious variant, is thought to have already spread over the world, and the circulating variants are now less likely to develop a variant that is even more contagious. The hybrid immunity that the majority of people possess as a result of prior infection and vaccination contributes to the beginning of the end. Therefore, it is true what the World Health Organization said: “The end is in sight.”

According to Dr. Ankur Phatarpekar, there have been very few heart problems caused by Covid. “As a cardiologist, I see relatively few cases of Covid-19 in my OPD and extremely few heart problems caused by Covid. Nearly no patients have experienced heart attacks or complications from heart disease as a result of Covid in the past six months, according to my observations. So, the pandemic is indeed at its end, as stated by WHO. To protect ourselves from new viruses, we should all continue to stick to some safety precautions.

“The human race has shown that it can overcome what has recently posed the greatest threat to its existence. We must yet exercise caution. For a better future, we must learn from our mistakes and build on the good. The importance of vaccination in helping us get to this day cannot be overstated. Without a doubt, Covid-19 is coming to an end, but it’s crucial to keep up with the regulations in the meanwhile. declaring Dr. Naman Bansal.